The Last Cylon Debate.

The blogs have been lighting up. The comments have been flying. The theories are getting wilder by the day and the mood could be turning ugly as the question on everyones lips burns on... who will be revealed to be the final Cylon in Battlestar Galactica?

Some would say that the smart money's on Laura Roslin. Others think Bill Adama's a safer bet. Others prefer his son, Lee. And a lot of people are feeling quietly confident that Baltar will be the one.

Starbuck's not an impossibility. Dualla's got her fans. Even the rather dead Billy, Ellen and Callie have their proponents. And that's not to mention Mr Gaeta, Doc Cottle, Racetrack, Helo, Zak Adama, Tom Zareck, or God(s?) help us, Hotdog.

Whether it's one of these characters or not, to read some of the recent postings on the topic makes me feel a twinge of sympathy for the studio lackey that had to sit through Oliver Stones' first cut of JFK's closing scenes.

All the BSG fans (who, by the way, haven't managed to land themselves with a collective nick-name yet, no Trekkie or browncoat-esque shorthand...this may signify something...quite what, I'll work on...) have their own take on things. Ronald D. Moores' comments that the final Cylon isn't in the Last Supper-aping photo (which has recently seen closer examination than the Zapruder tape and Britney Spears' crotch as it exits a stretch limo, combined) has led some fans to vehemently state that Laura, Bill, Lee, Baltar, Helo and Starbuck are out of the running.

This is the same Ronald D. Moore who told us that Starbuck was definitely dead.

Excuse me if I'll take that one with a large dose of salt. So, for the god-dammed sake of it, I've decided to weigh in with my point of view...

As with most things in life, it's easier to say what isn't right than what is, so lets go through who I just can't accept as the big-one, and maybe by a process of elimination we'll get somewhere...

They don't get much bigger than the President or the Admiral, so lets start there. It's not going to be either of them. Seriously, it just isn't. If the writers felt it was OK to ret-con the entire back story of the shows Mother or Father, just to give us a 'holy shit!' final reveal, they'd cheapen what came before and what would follow.

Bill Adama is a locked-in human, with a family to prove it. Laura Roslin is the dying leader, who'll stick around long enough to get them where their going, and then snuff it in a scene that I already can't bear to think of (candles? Cottle stubbing out a cigarette? Bill holding her hand, reading aloud the final chapter of the book he's never finished, as life slowly drains from her and he regrets every minute he didn't know her?...oh Christ, I'll be lucky to make it through that one...).

I have faith in the taste and sensibilities of the writers not to frak with these two wonderfully realised, human characters, not to give us some cheap excuse, involving swapping of children, genetic engineering (as the Caprica outline seems to be hinting at...) or false, implanted memories. The soul of the programme would be sullied if this happened, and I'll trust Moore not to let me down on this.

Which means it can't be Lee, either. Bills son...ergo...not a Cylon. Easy.

Starbuck is an interesting one, and not as easily dismissible as the previous few. Her story is a complex one; hell, the girls died once, reappeared, been tortured, had her ovaries whipped out by an inquisitive cyborg, smashed her knee up, nearly asphyxiated on a barren asteroid, been brought back to her abusive childhood by the ghost of Christmas past masquerading as an electronic sex-pest, drank half the fleets supply of hooch and jumped in the sack with roughly three quarters of the male cast and is currently trying to out-Kurtz Kurtz ...she's bound to have a few issues. But that doesn't make me think she's a Cylon.

Starbuck has retrieved the arrow of Apollo and been to Earth (possibly). She has displayed that she is all too human on many occasions, prone to fits of rage, acts of spite and lapses in judgement. She is also, and this is the killer point, far too bloody obvious. The Harbinger of Doom, she may be, but as a Cylon, she looks suspiciously red and rather herring shaped.

Baltar, too, isn't right. His visions of Six and, wonderfully, himself, seemingly pre-doomsday, are odd, granted. His messianic zeal, however, has sent him down a path that will be richer and more rewarding if he manages not to be plot-deviced into Cylon status. One of the most intriguing aspects of his character is his quest for redemption. Under the protective layers of self belief, intellectual vanity, self-justification and narcissism, lies a guilty, pained man, who still can't quite believe that he had a major role in the genocide of his people.

His new-found religious fervour has been covered in great detail elsewhere, so I won't repeat the discussion (A Blog from Hell: The Cylon God), but I will say that the religious aspect of Baltars' character is a new phase in what is one of the most protracted mental-breakdowns in television history. And it's wonderful. If Baltar can navigate fleet politics and survive religious fundamentalists, then he could be a unifying force, a symbol of the shedding of the past and the start of a new belief system. But thats a long way off for now. (incidentally, in a sustained performance that has regulary had me laughing long and loud, James Callis maybe set a new gold standard when confronted by his own image in-head...his reaction is beyond priceless).

Baltar as the final Cylon would be wrong on almost all levels. He's too good as a monotheistic rabble rouser and redemption seeking sinner to be wasted as a shock-tactic final reveal...

I'm going to go out on a limb, and write off the dead characters out of hand, purely because it seems a move beneath the writers. In my book, the re-appearance of Billy, Cally, Ellen, Crashdown and so on, just wouldn't work. It would be like Patrick Duffy stepping out of a shower all over again. And they were boring, anyway.

Gaeta, Hotdog and Racetrack don't float my boat. They're bit part players, nothing more, and none of the actors have the chops to step up to the dramatic heft that the revelation would require. So bye to them...

Which leaves me with Helo, Zareck, Cottle and Dualla.

I've read a million different articles and blogs stating why one or the other of these guys simply has to be the final Cylon, and a million more, equally as sure and certain as to why they can't be.

There's evidence and arguments to make for all of them, but lets remove Cottle straight away. He has the age aspect (that's if we're assuming the final Cylon will be a Father Figure and a controlling influence over other Cylons and possibly humans, and knows more than the others...which I un-apologetically am, but I'll come back to that in a second...) and he's authoritarian enough, but I can't buy it. Cottles' role is fine as it is, and his elevation to final Cylonian status would, in it's own way, be as jarring as any of the previous discounted possibilities.

Zareck tempted me for a while, I'll admit. He's gravitated towards a position of power and responsibility, as seems to be a unifying trend with the recently revealed four. He is morally ambiguous enough for any would-be Cylon and he sure can give a creepy stare when needed. But his recent behaviour, I think, rules him out. He's decided that Kingmaker is the role best suited for him, the guy behind the guy. He gave it a go with Baltar, and now he's pushing Lees' buttons with rude abandon. To shift towards being a Cylon now wouldn't be compatible with his recent actions and, more importantly, the role of the final Cylon (as I envisage it...) wouldn't rest easy on Zarecks' shoulders. He's a divisive figure, not a unifier, as the final Cylon will have to be and therefore I'm saying he's going to stay as a machiavellian human.

So, on to Dualla. There's a lot of support for her out there. Hell, I remember reading blogs from season one onwards calling her out as a Cylon. It's the eyes that have done this, I reckon. Kandyse McClures' (great name, by the way...) shimmering irises, one minute gleaming green, then possibly azure, and at times seeming quite brown, have given her character a unintentional air of duplicity and untrustworthiness.

Her marriage to Lee, linked as it was with the betrayal of poor, bumbling Billy and the obstruction of Starbuck and Apollos' seemingly (at the time) inevitable romance, has also added to a certain level of general fan distrust (my sister could refer to her only as "that bitch" for most of seasons' two and three after her poaching of Lee).

But you know what? I can't go with it. Dualla's not final Cylon material. She's a distraction. A good one, but that's it. To see the little girl who could barely raise her voice in the CIC go all the way to final Cylon status doesn't wash. Her character arc has been interesting - her role as XO on Pegasus showed just how far she's come, but the step up to being one of the final five won't work.

Which leaves one Karl Agathon.

Since 33 I have loved Helo more than almost any other member of the crew. His clear honesty; his willingness to sacrifice himself for (what he saw as) the greater good; his bloody minded refusal to give up when the odds seemed stacked against him. His refusal to compromise his moral code for any one, be it the Old Man, the President, or even his best friend. His love of the service, of the uniform and his ship. And most of all, his love of Athena and Hera, leading to some of the hardest choices faced by any character in the show.

Helo's faced all this and more and never once has the fundamental decency of his character wavered. He knows right from wrong, and he knows where he fits into the big picture (at least for now). To properly explain why I think he's going to have to be the final Cylon, I'll first outline what I think the role of the final five and, more importantly, the yet-to-be revealed fifth, will be.

Ronald D.Moore has stated that the final five will be "fundamentally different Cylons" and I'll decide to believe him on this point. They're older than the other seven models, and steeped in the mystery of the creation myth of the Cylon race. They don't know it yet; the awakening is confusing for the four we've seen, but they're here to shape the future of both races. The Caprica series will expand greatly on this story, but I feel that the only way this can go is towards the unification of Human and Cylon races and the shared settling of a recently discovered Earth.

To do this, they'll need a leader. A unifying force to salve the wounds still raw from the attack of the colonies and reassure the remaining fleet that a truce can work and be trusted. This is the job that the final five will undertake, none more so than the so far un-seen final member. The four who have discovered their true natures are, understandably, finding it hard to deal with the news. Tigh is putting a brave face on things, but the bedrock of the one tangible achievement in his life, the one thing that hasn't completely rotted away - his military career- has been shaken badly.

Tyrols' guilt and disbelief are driving him away from his previously solid grounding. Whether or not he will really start buying into Baltars' new creed, and give himself a break, or whether the shaved head and skipping will send him down a Travis Bickle route, will depend largely on his ability to believe the best of himself - and that could be forthcoming not from Baltar, but from the reassurance of the final Cylon that he has an important role to play in the survival of Humanity.

Anders is sticking his head in the sand, and using Starbuck and her mission to simply not think about things too much. Denial is easier than confrontation, after all, and it's even easier if you can get far away from the fleet, the other three and your own problems. His crazy, some-time wife is taking up his time for now, but when things settle down (as much as they ever do in the fleet...) he'll still be looking in the mirror every day to see a Cylon staring back at him, something he'll have trouble dealing with on his own.

And as for Tori...well. On the surface she seems to be embracing her Cylon-ness. The growing infatuation with Baltar (who always seems to intrigue the Cylons), the suggestion that their programming makes them superior to humans, her disposal of Cally. But scratch the surface and her reactions aren't simply evidence of a budding Cylon sleeper agent, but rather that of someone as confused and scared as Tyrol, dealing with things in a different manner.

I found nothing inherently wrong how she dealt with Cally. Not to condone murder, but how else was she meant to play that one? Confronted with an unstable, pill popping woman with a history of pathological hatred of any Cylon, her husbands blood on her hands and her child in her arms, hand hovering over the air-lock release, what was the right move? Talk her down and then hope she'll just take a deep breath, calm down, and promise not to tell anyone about the four Cylon skin-jobs living in secret?

Or take the easiest, cleanest route out, save the life of a child and secure the safety of her newly revealed comrades? Cruel, maybe. Harsh, yes. But in the big scheme of things, probably the right move. The long term effects are yet to be seen. Whether or not Baltars' promise of unconditional love from one true God will keep the potential guilt at bay will play a big part of how her character will develop.

What the Cylons' need is a leader, a purpose, someone to tell them who they are and what they're there for. This will be the last member of the final five. The Colonial Fleet will also need someone to unite behind, someone with answers and the ideas needed to get them through the period of change that will come as the two races realise that their long-term survival depends on co-operation and peace. This will require someone who can command respect and take hard decisions. Roslin will be gone. Cavil will, I think, be boxed or wiped out, a casualty of the Cylon civil war. Bill Adama will be obsolete, if not simply killed in battle near the end of the series. Like Ethan Edwards by the end of The Searchers, Adama won't fit into the new world that will have to grow from whats left of the Cylon and Human cultures. He will have fought the good fight, but in doing so will make himself a relic. The brave new world of a Cylon-Human coalition will surely be no country for an old man like Bill.

Both sides will need someone to unite behind.

Who better a face for Cylon-Human cooperation and redemption than Helo? His sacrifices and actions to help save humanity and his proven respect and belief in the service, mixed with his love of Athena and past actions in regards to Cylon treatment by humans will ease both sides fears. His programming, which still lies dormant for a reason not yet explained, will reveal to him how to utilise Tigh, Tyrol, Tori and Anders to lead the way for a new epoch. His child, revealed as the first born of two Cylons', will become a beacon of hope and evidence that the Cylons' have fundamentally become as Human as the rest of the fleet.

The protracted puberty of the Cylon race, complete with parent-killing fantasies and spiritual awakenings, will be over. Helo, Baltar and Lee will lead the way to one race with one God and one home.

...At least, that's what I think. And I know there's holes, and I know that other arguments can be made, but there you go...that's the joy of this show. Watching The Road Less Traveled once again brought home to me just how good this show is (like I needed reminding...). The final moments of any episode almost always surprise me in some way, and once again, I find myself impatient for Friday to roll around.

Whether my predictions are anywhere near the mark or not (but I like to think that at least some of my musings will be proven accurate) one thing's for certain; when this season finishes, our television will be a damn sight less interesting for quite some time.